Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Wescli Wardest
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18 Mar 2015 00:57 - 18 Mar 2015 01:01 #184605 by Wescli Wardest

Could civilization as we know it collapse soon? was created by Wescli Wardest

A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.

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Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

The independent research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The HANDY model was created using a minor Nasa grant, but the study based on it was conducted independently. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.

It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."

Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:

"... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels."

The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these challenges by increasing efficiency:

"Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."

Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period.

Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharrei and his colleagues conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid." In the first of these scenarios, civilisation:

".... appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. It is important to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine that causes a loss of workers, rather than a collapse of Nature."

Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites."

In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)."

Applying this lesson to our contemporary predicament, the study warns that:

"While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing."

However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable civilisation.

The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing population growth:

"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion."

The NASA-funded HANDY model offers a highly credible wake-up call to governments, corporations and business - and consumers - to recognise that 'business as usual' cannot be sustained, and that policy and structural changes are required immediately.

Although the study based on HANDY is largely theoretical - a 'thought-experiment' - a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

[hr]

It is interesting to me that so many people ignore the growing issues in the world as if they will have no ramifications or effect on their personal lives. The, “It could never happen to me” mentality is sometimes staggeringly amazing to witness. And I can’t help but to set there and marvel at what must be going on in another’s head.

Often time Preppers and Survivalist are ridiculed and mocked for their forethought. And sure, some are just nuts. But seriously… don’t you think the governments have plans for when the SHTF situations?

Planning for the future, in my opinion, is a good thing. Whether that be retirement or the rise of a zombie apocalypse it is each individual’s personal responsibility to make preparations for their own future whatever that might be.

Just thinking out loud I guess.

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Last edit: 18 Mar 2015 01:01 by Wescli Wardest.

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Brenna
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18 Mar 2015 01:02 #184606 by Brenna

Replied by Brenna on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Personally, I think everyone should be encouraged to have WTSHTF plans. God help us if the end comes and the only people that survive are the preppers!!

:woohoo:

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Part of the seduction of most religions is the idea that if you just say the right things and believe really hard, your salvation will be at hand.

With Jediism. No one is coming to save you. You have to get off your ass and do it yourself - Me

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RyuJin
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18 Mar 2015 01:13 #184607 by RyuJin

Replied by RyuJin on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Although the study based on HANDY is largely theoretical - a 'thought-experiment' - a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.

so i just need to wait another 15 years to get to use my gear?....finally some good news :lol:

Personally, I think everyone should be encouraged to have WTSHTF plans. God help us if the end comes and the only people that survive are the preppers!! :woohoo:

hey, i resemble that remark :angry:

:woohoo: :silly:

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SilverWolf
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18 Mar 2015 01:14 #184608 by SilverWolf

Replied by SilverWolf on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Noah's Ark

Joke submitted by: Anonymous
________________________________________

The Lord spoke to Noah and said, "In six months I
am going to make it rain until the whole world is
covered with water and all the evil things are
destroyed. But, I want to save a few good people and
two of every living thing on the planet. I am
ordering you to build an ark." And, in a flash of
lightning, he delivered the specifications for the
ark. "OK," Noah said, trembling with fear and fumbling
with the blueprints, "I'm your man."

Six months passed, the sky began to cloud up, and
the rain began to fall in torrents. The Lord looked
down and saw Noah sitting in his yard, weeping, and
there was no ark.

"Noah!" shouted the Lord, "Where is My ark?" A
lightning bolt crashed into the ground right beside
Noah.

"Lord, please forgive me!" begged Noah. "I did my
best, but there were some big problems. First, I had
to get a building permit for the ark's construction,
but Your plans did not meet their code. So, I had to
hire an engineer to redo the plans, only to get into a
long argument with him about whether to include a
sprinkler system.

"My neighbors objected, claiming that I was
violating zoning ordinances by building the ark in my
front yard, so I had to get a variance from the city
planning board.

Then, I had a big problem getting enough wood for
the ark, because there was a ban on cutting trees to
save the spotted owl. I tried to convince the
environmentalists and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service that I needed the wood to save the owls, but
they wouldn't let me catch them, so no owls.

"Next, I started gathering up the animals but got
sued by an animal rights group that objected to me
taking along only two of each kind.

"Just when the suit got dismissed, the EPA
notified me that I couldn't complete the ark without
filling out an environmental impact statement on Your
proposed flood. They didn't take kindly to the idea
that they had no jurisdiction over the Supreme Being.
Then, the Corps of Engineers wanted a map of the
proposed flood plan. I sent them a globe!

"Right now, I'm still trying to resolve a
complaint with the Equal Opportunities Commission over
how many minorities I'm supposed to hire. The IRS has
seized all my assets claiming that I am trying to
leave the country, and I just got a notice from the
state that I owe some kind of use tax. Really, I
don't think I can finish the ark in less than five
years."

With that, the sky cleared, the sun began to
shine, and a rainbow arched across the sky. Noah
looked up and smiled. "You mean you are not going to
destroy the world?" he asked hopefully.

"No," said the Lord. "The government already has."

ok, despite the truth of this joke, I am already in the process of preparing myself and my family a little bit each month in case TSHTF does happen. this coming month i'm working on getting my HAM radio license, this month and part of next month, my son and I are going to sign up for martial arts.

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steamboat28
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Si vis pacem, para bellum.

18 Mar 2015 01:18 #184609 by steamboat28

Replied by steamboat28 on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Brenna wrote: God help us if the end comes and the only people that survive are the preppers!! :woohoo:

ohgods. Humanity would be extinct inside three weeks.

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Brenna
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I hear your voice on the wind, and I hear you call out my name

18 Mar 2015 01:24 #184610 by Brenna

Replied by Brenna on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

steamboat28 wrote:
Brenna wrote: God help us if the end comes and the only people that survive are the preppers!! :woohoo:

ohgods. Humanity would be extinct inside three weeks.

Im not sure I agree. But there would be a hell of a lot of additional deaths that begin with "Watch this Y'all!"

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steamboat28
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Si vis pacem, para bellum.

18 Mar 2015 01:31 - 18 Mar 2015 01:36 #184611 by steamboat28

Replied by steamboat28 on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Brenna wrote: Im not sure I agree.

Literally every prepper I know, personally, or have seen on TV or the Internet:

Stocks 25 years of toilet paper. Doesn't think about what happens on year 26.
Buys enough ammo to last him "years," but doesn't buy replacement parts for his firearms, routinely clean them, or learn to shoot a bow.
Has a four-lifetime supply of dried goods, boxed dinners, and trail mix. Has no idea how to cook.
Sets aside enough water, telling herself she'll "learn how to purify more later." Doesn't.
Has garage full of supplies. Doesn't rotate stock.
Buys gasoline. Doesn't think about how it ages, or learn to make biofuel.
Has tons of "SHTF" manuals on his Kindle. Doesn't have a USB charger to plug into his generator.
Only knows how to cook on a gas/electric stove.
Wants to safeguard supplies from neighbors, but is totally willing to run a really, really loud generator during a time period when human-created noise will be at a three-century low.
Knows nothing about hunting.
Is vegan, gluten-intolerant, or has severe food allergies. Forgets to plan for this in their supplies.
Doesn't rotate water supplies in bug-out bags.
Is medicated.
Relies on Internet for information on how to survive TEOTWAWKI, without making any kind of hard copies or buying physical books, too.
Thinks charcoal is just for grilling.

...the more I think about it, this really should be a meme.

Last edit: 18 Mar 2015 01:36 by steamboat28.

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RyuJin
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18 Mar 2015 01:32 #184612 by RyuJin

Replied by RyuJin on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Brenna wrote: Im not sure I agree. But there would be a hell of a lot of additional deaths that begin with "Watch this Y'all!"

omfg....that was brilliantly hilarious.....and sadly probably true

as to preparations....mine are simple...it's mainly just me and my dog....as (it sounds mean/harsh to say) i doubt my mom will be around for such an event given her medical conditions...of course she does come from rather fiery/vicious stock...if she is around for something like that, well...luckily my plans include flexibility and i have the skills needed to handle it...the drawbacks to being an intj is that you end up making back up plans to the back up plans, just to make plans....

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Adder
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18 Mar 2015 01:45 #184614 by Adder

Replied by Adder on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

Agreed! Start small;
- have a fire evacuation plan for your home, even practise it sometimes!
- have a storm/earthquake event plan, eg where to hide in house, or where to go outside of house.
- have a isolation capacity for at least a week of food and water so you can stay indoors.

That is about as much as I've done...
After that its gets more bizarre, and I guess I have given some thought to this, and have some of the items... like lots of thick plastic sheeting and masking tape to cover windows and doors and air passages to airlock yourself in (plus some air filtration!?), and of course the obligatory 'get up and get out of dodge in a hurry' checklist or prepacked gear.

Where is my old SAS survival book :lol:

I think underwater habitat's might be the way to go for overpopulation perhaps... easier to space, and related enough to be a transition to space in the longer run.

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RyuJin
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18 Mar 2015 01:49 #184615 by RyuJin

Replied by RyuJin on topic Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

steamboat28 wrote:
Brenna wrote: Im not sure I agree. But there would be a hell of a lot of additional deaths that begin with "Watch this Y'all!"

Literally every prepper I know, personally, or have seen on TV or the Internet:

Stocks 25 years of toilet paper. Doesn't think about what happens on year 26.

that's why i know which leaves to use and which not to

Buys enough ammo to last him "years," but doesn't buy replacement parts for his firearms, routinely clean them, or learn to shoot a bow.

i have a crossbow, and know how to make a bow and arrows, i clean and maintain all my weapons including firearms,blades etc....you'd be surprised how many don't think to keep a sharpening stone handy

Has a four-lifetime supply of dried goods, boxed dinners, and trail mix. Has no idea how to cook.

i can cook anything on anything

Sets aside enough water, telling herself she'll "learn how to purify more later." Doesn't.

i know how to not only purify water but also how to find multiple sources

Has garage full of supplies. Doesn't rotate stock.

my primary job in the navy was supply...so i know all about stock rotation

Buys gasoline. Doesn't think about how it ages, or learn to make biofuel.

my plans do not include a vehicle, however i know how to make diesel, and a bicycle requires no gas and will be quite abundant

Has tons of "SHTF" manuals on his Kindle. Doesn't have a USB charger to plug into his generator.

i print out all the info i need and place it in a protective binder

Only knows how to cook on a gas/electric stove.

see above...open flame, bbq grill, it doesn't matter as long as it produces heat

Wants to safeguard supplies from neighbors, but is totally willing to run a really, really loud generator during a time period when human-created noise will be at a three-century low.

my plans do not include a genny...up with the light down with the light, sleep lightly...

Knows nothing about hunting.

again something i'm skilled at

Is vegan, gluten-intolerant, or has severe food allergies. Forgets to plan for this in their supplies.

nka (no known allergies)...no need for any medications, but i do know which antibiotics to look for when scavenging for supplies

Doesn't rotate water supplies in bug-out bags.

again...ex military...stock rotation, no issue

Is medicated.

another n/a

Relies on Internet for information on how to survive TEOTWAWKI, without making any kind of hard copies or buying physical books, too.

again i make hardcopies of the info i need and put it in a hard binder

Thinks charcoal is just for grilling.

cooking, water filter, writing, and countless other options

...the more I think about it, this really should be a meme.

that would be funny

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