Could civilization as we know it collapse soon?

the plastic can also be used to make a water trap...preferably use dark plastic for that...

I think if everyone put in as much time finding solutions and being optimistic rather than prepping for and expecting the worst, we might have quite a different world.

Seriously, think about it, how many people only see negative studies?

Or post them?

How does this define how they spend there time?

Being the change they want to see in the world?

Or just waiting for the bad shit to happen?

Who ultimately bears the brunt of the responsibility?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMBJ87ZTuJY

How about some evolution?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts4s9gjCT04

I always hope for the best, but experience has taught me to at least have a plan for when the worst happens.


I like optimist. I like those that want to make plans and solutions to problems. Of course, one has to identify the problem exists before those solutions can be made. And even if a plan is in place to prevent the undesired outcome, prudence says that we would be wise to have a fall back plan. Just in case the first plan doesn’t work.
:laugh:

To my mind there are two fundamental types of preparations for a survival scenario - skill-set development and supply acquisition. Ideally you'd have a fair amount of both, but the long-term answer is skill development. There is no such thing as a permanently ideal location, a completely defensible position, or unending supplies. The first two are on a sliding scale, and the last doesn't exist. Even if it did - without a good head on one's shoulders a survivor is now anchored to that resource and will be targeted for it accordingly. I see supplies as a method to bridge the gaps you may have when things are lean and your options are very scarce. As we were taught regarding nutrition in SERE - go ugly early. In a group setting, the abilities you can bring to the table make you valuable. The supplies you have make you a valuable target. Skills are tools you always carry with you, that no one can take from you. With that, though, is the understanding that it is up to YOU to figure out how to apply those tools to the scenario in which you find yourself.

Regarding prepping...some do it as a hobby, others have crossover from their work, and still others as a personal or communal passion. Readiness is really a game of percentages. It's not possible to plan for every contingency and be completely ready for them at all times. Some folks learn a few basic things and are satisfied that they can handle themselves in short-duration situations. Others sink a lot of their time and money into low-percentage high threat scenarios that may never come to pass - so much so that they forgo potential opportunities in their current daily lives. Neither is right or wrong based on what we know now, but understand what you're risking when you slide far down on either end of the bell curve. Whatever your plan is, make sure it involves a thought-out strategy. Develop your skills and gather supplies based on that strategy and go as far as you are willing and able to embrace it. It doesn't take much to figure out a basic game plan. If nothing, you'll have an idea of where your weaknesses are when the dead start walking, SkyNet boots up, and our alien overlords start raining fire and face-huggers from on high. Hint: For most it'll still probably be dying of exposure, thirst, or dysentery.

Regarding firearms and projectile weapons - probably not a bad thing to have on-hand for hunting and defense. One thing that I think many fail to consider is the morality of survival. Some stockpile small arsenals and don't give a thought to their ethical use one bit. I don't bring this up as an order/chaos debate or a philosophical concepts piece - I mean consider a bit of contingency planning as to what you and yours will do BEYOND those easy black and white situations. What will you find acceptable when using these tools when things go further and further south...and how much time will you waste thinking about it on-site when the freshest, healthiest version of you is able to think about it right now? A lot of REALLY smart and talented people get overcome by events (OBE) when they're tired, hungry, cold, wet, and desperate. Making the best decision you can becomes more difficult in those circumstances...so why not front-load some of that long division so you can make a quicker, better decision when the time comes? You want to see a person who doesn't know what they're talking about? Watch for the guy who says really dark and badass things like, "I'll do whatever I have to..." or his polar opposite, "Oh I'd NEVER do that." Both statements give the speaker a free pass to stop thinking, while promoting the self-image they have of themselves to others. The guy who says, "It depends", and then can reasonably game out the variables at length - including when he would find an option suitable and appropriate - is the one you really need to look out for. The thinking man, using the one tool you cannot substitute or acquire.

Could civilization as we know it collapse soon? Yes - but in my opinion such a disaster is most likely to come from gross political mismanagement rather than anything else. The historical examples (Roman, Mayan empires etc) are interesting but not strictly relevant. They were local / regional civilizations - ours is increasingly a global one and that makes it much more resilient to complete annihilation.

As Reacher says, individual prepping up to a point is probably a good idea - particularly if it helps you sleep well tonight. Obsessively prepping is probably not a productive, healthy way to spend your days. Even if I had stashed resources to last a lifetime I'm pretty sure I'd be unable to keep them in a disaster scenario - I hope I'd want to help those who were in dire straits, and I wouldn't be willing to kill to protect the stash. Even if that wasn't the case the chances are - those resources would be gone in days. Group (not just individual) survival skills would be much, much more useful.

It makes much more sense to focus our efforts on making our whole civilization more resilient - rather than trying to preserve our individual tiny pockets of 21st Century lifestyle in the event of a broader collapse. That means making our resource use (food, energy, water) sustainable and not starting war. We can simplify further though. Food and water production, and fair distribution of them are ultimately reliant on sustainable, cheap and widely available energy. Energy abundance would also make war much less likely, and get billions of people without our easy lifestyles into better standards of living now.

Unlike the tone of the research (and article) I don't fear the elite - yet. They mostly need voters (where democracy thrives and survives) and they all need consumers. Without consumers they don't make money. They need the "Commoners" (a poorly selected term as, at least where I'm from, Commoners have rights over the means of production) to be active consumers, and you're typically not an active consumer when you're at or below the poverty line.

This whole topic also raises the question of whether we are overly attached to our modern civilization. I'm firmly of the view that we should work to spread it to those that aspire to it, and work to protect it from internal and exogenous threats. However, realising that our civilization may be precarious and finite should give us great cause to appreciate and celebrate it now, whilst employing policies to make it truly sustainable.

that's why i keep my supplies at a level manageable for me...and i keep them set for mobility...i also keep a mental map of the entire town and surrounding area. this map includes where i could get supplies and find safe shelter...

with firearms many people tend to forget that in a shtf situation no one is going to be making anymore bullets...so it's important to know how to use traps and improvised weapons....knowledge is more valuable than anything you can grab or hold....and the ability to use that knowledge is equally important as the knowledge...

there are certain things i'd easily do, certain things i'd reluctantly do, and certain things i'd never do...of course the vast majority of things sit on a sliding scale....

Sadly I lack proper hunting skills. That's why my plans all involve getting to my fiance's parents' house. Her dad knows how to hunt, their house is secluded and surrounded by a nice woody area, and they've got a decent sized arsenal because they've both worked for gun manufactures at various times. It's only about an hour and a half from my place by car on lesser highways so as long as we head out early enough we won't have trouble getting there. Plus my parents' (and their only slightly smaller arsenal) are right on the way.

RyuJin wrote: with firearms many people tend to forget that in a shtf situation no one is going to be making anymore bullets...

Speak for yourself. This is the reason one of my mid-term projects is a foundry.

steamboat28 wrote:

RyuJin wrote: with firearms many people tend to forget that in a shtf situation no one is going to be making anymore bullets...

Speak for yourself. This is the reason one of my mid-term projects is a foundry.

Ah, but blades don't need reloaded.