AI: a new God or a new Slave?

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4 years 9 months ago #338990 by
The following blog makes reference to C3PO in a funny manner, but also raises interesting questions about the powers of future artificial intelligences, and the possibility of a religion linked to an AI deity

https://theautarkist.wordpress.com/2018/03/23/ai-a-new-god-or-a-new-slave/

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4 years 9 months ago - 4 years 9 months ago #338991 by
Replied by on topic AI: a new God or a new Slave?
I disfavor the idea of making some AI entity - even a post-singularity superintelligence - into a deity. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which a created entity that in some respects far exceeds the capabilities of its flawed creators, but in others falls short, does not lead to some major complications if worshipped and regarded as infallible.

But the idea does serve as a flag for how much AI is going to change our lives over the next decade. Princeton University, Oxford University, and the global accounting/consultancy firm of Price Waterhouse Coopers have each performed research resulting in a projection of the impact on employment that we can expect from AI by about 2030. They all estimate that 30 - 40% of employees in the developed world are at risk of being displaced by AI; in the developing world, the percentage is higher.

And the jobs lost will not be simple, repetitive ones. Already, IBM's Watson is designing protocols for cancer treatment for dozens of hospitals at the same time it manages an exchange-traded stock fund (ticker symbol AIEQ, if anyone's interested). China's Xinhua News Agency - the largest in the world, based on number of correspondents - has two newscasters on its televised broadcasts that are robots, and at least in that context are indistinguishable from humans. The U.S. Postal Service is testing self-driving trucks to deliver mail on long-range hauls over our public highways right now. Domino's is test marketing home pizza delivery via driverless cars. A hotel in Japan dispatches robots to provide room service.

We are in for some big societal changes from this technology. If we are wise in adjusting our social policies to accomodate them, the results could be terrific. If we are not, the outcomes could be catastrophic. As a recent acquaintance conveyed to me: "Our future is going to be either Star Trek or Mad Max."

We should be hearing more discussion about this in our media, but ... oh well.
Last edit: 4 years 9 months ago by . Reason: Corrected a misspelling - replaced "and" with "an".

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4 years 9 months ago #339002 by JamesSand
How come my job can be almost completely automated, but I'm still working a 5 day week and expected to do my own shopping, clean my own house, etc etc etc?

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4 years 9 months ago #339003 by
Replied by on topic AI: a new God or a new Slave?

JamesSand wrote: How come my job can be almost completely automated, but I'm still working a 5 day week and expected to do my own shopping, clean my own house, etc etc etc?


We are very, very close to that changing, James, but we are not quite there yet. Watson is at this writing an exceptional computer. Those other examples I listed are current, but still use prototyped hardware. Machines like this are still primarily in labs and test environments, but every expert I can find indicates that is going to change very quickly.

Uber and Lyft are already planning for driverless taxis in their business models, so they're seeing a great expansion of this technology in the next 3 - 5 years. Businesses like the Post Office and Xinhua News typically don't meddle with technology whose payoff is decades out - but benefits within a much closer timeframe can elicit the sort of involvement we're seeing.

Dubai has deployed a limited number of robocops that can manage a limited range of police activity. They plan for 25% of their police force to be robots by the mid-2020's.

I'm finding many interesting videos of robots doing human work, though still on a limited scale. Here is a short one of an almost fully automated Kia factory, where cars are made by other machines. I spotted three human beings in this whole video; one walked a hallway, one rode a bike through the factory, and one actually moved something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjAZGUcjrP8

The upside is that we as a society have a few years to respond proactively. We don't have to wait until we are burdened with income anxiety and unemployment. I sure hope we take advantage of the opportunity.

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4 years 9 months ago #339019 by JamesSand

We are very, very close to that changing, James, but we are not quite there yet.


How close?

What I do is mostly pointless, but for some reason the idea of me NOT doing 40-60 hours of busy-work a week in exchange for....a certain amount of food, energy, and recreational equipment or activities is frustrating for a lot of people.

I could just as easily be paid as much and not turn up to work, and almost exactly the entire population of the world would be no better or worse off.

Probably be better off really, less paper would get used, aside from whatever other waste my menial activities generates.


Technology is capable of doing all sorts of interesting things, but we seem utterly unable to really use it for anything other than continuing our own stupid habits, faster, and with more lights.

(Don't really need robots to build cars if we don't need cars to commute to jobs we don't have.....)



Has the march of progress saved you any time, or just given you new ways to spend it?

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4 years 9 months ago #339031 by
Replied by on topic AI: a new God or a new Slave?

JamesSand wrote:
How close?


Major impacts on employment are projected by both academic and private researchers by about 2030. Of course, they won't all hit at the end of that period; we'll see the effects appearing as time proceeds from now until then.

What I do is mostly pointless, but for some reason the idea of me NOT doing 40-60 hours of busy-work a week in exchange for....a certain amount of food, energy, and recreational equipment or activities is frustrating for a lot of people.


A whole dissertation could be written about waste, including our collective pool of wasted labor. But one of the positive potentials of automation is that it would open the door toward providing a universal basic income, regardless of employment status. It's being experimented with on a small scale in Europe and Africa. The scheme usually provides a guaranteed income about equal to a month's rent for a modest residence - not enough to fulfill all needs, but enough to prevent homelessness at least. So far, the results seem to be not that people get lazy and stop working, but rather they feel more free to become entrepreneurs, working in cottage industries that may not alone provide enough income to be self-supporting - but in combination with the guaranteed income, people thrive, and report satisfaction with their lives.

Technology is capable of doing all sorts of interesting things, but we seem utterly unable to really use it for anything other than continuing our own stupid habits, faster, and with more lights.


Heh. I recall a comedian's comments from a few months back. He said: "Imagine you could go back in time, and meet the you of two or three decades ago. You might hold out your smart phone, and declare: 'I carry around this device that allows me to access nearly all of the accumulated knowledge of humanity, instantaneously. I use it mostly to watch cat videos and argue with strangers.'"

Has the march of progress saved you any time, or just given you new ways to spend it?


That's a really good point. In the 1990's, a professor from Stanford wrote a book asking why, when in the 1960's we thought automation would give people so much leisure time that we'd have to exert ourselves to figure out how to use it, we were busier at our jobs than ever? His conclusion was that the problem was greed; instead of allowing prosperity to grant us more free time, we used it to satisfy our appetite for ever more stuff. I my lifetime, we've transitioned from families owning one car, often one television, and (only if we were flush) a room air conditioner to a car for every adult in the house, a TV in every room, and central air conditioning everyplace. We could change that, if we chose to ... so much of our future hinges on making wise choices.

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4 years 9 months ago #339042 by ZealotX

JamesSand wrote: How come my job can be almost completely automated, but I'm still working a 5 day week and expected to do my own shopping, clean my own house, etc etc etc?


Do you mind revealing what your job is? Then I could give you my thoughts on how much danger your job might face.

The thing is every company isn't going to immediately automate or try to automate everything. Many companies are very slow to adopt new technology and many, especially manufacturing, companies aren't even using current tech or tech from 10 years ago. It costs money to upgrade. It costs even more money to install some brand new tech for the first time. And then you have to reorganize things around the new system. So when a company decides to do it they're going to look at the cost of changing everything vs. the cost of the current "inefficient" system. I'm saying inefficient because that's how an AI would also see it. We like having jobs so we can get paid. An AI doesn't get tired, need vacations, need to eat, get sick, or any number of "liabilites" that human workers represent to the financial future of a company.

The place I work is very slow on upgrading the website because there isn't a more direct correlation to profits. However we did get a new "machine" and a our first, in the 50 yr history, robotic arm. And there's basically like 2 guys running it. So I would say that for a long time there's still going to be humans at least supervising machines. And the more companies automate the more other companies will have to automate to remain competitive and the more the cost of investing in automation will go down.

It's kind of like a roller coaster. We're currently on the climb, slowly approaching the top. When capitalism drives this completely over the edge a lot of people are not going to be ready for it. I do not want that to be anyone here. I hope it isn't. AI is going to be a revolution, like the industrial revolution. We're playing with it right now. That is to say, the big kids are playing with it. After they're done they wont be playing anymore and the little kids will get to play with it. The big kids will start laying people off first which will make it harder for the little kids to compete. Eventually the little kids will start laying people off. The threat to many jobs is real and it's credible because at the end of the day corporations are not people and they do not have empathy. They don't exist to give people jobs. They exist to make money. And if they see you as a liability and if they can do your job better than you then you will serve no purpose to them.
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4 years 9 months ago #339044 by Carlos.Martinez3
Times are changing - no doubt about that. Which general direction can be left to what we see or where we are looking at times. How much we as a trace rely on our tech can be the same way too. A hotel in different parts of the world can go fully automated and the other can go fully manned and they may both exist. I know a place in Italy and Jerusalem that has one host - one for the whole place and that place is the most tranquil spot for a recharge. Also , I’ve heard it said at Disney world the trash cans throw them selfs away and you don’t need a key to get into your room just a pass some where on ya. Automation is making a path clearer and clearer into things more common. My wife’s phone is always listening to what we say and when she “googles” something we were speaking about - it’s ready to look it up... recognition and categorization at its finest. My grandma would be scared of things like that but she was old school. She had one map my grandpa kept of all their fav spots they traveled and phone numbers of stops n hotels when they traveled. My aunt still has that in a hope chest some where. Now a days that’s on my smartphone or device and at a thumbs touch away. What we do with pit tools - that’s a biggie for me. How we wield our tools and use them speaks volumes as we change and grow. Personally - I’m watching the Dewey decimal system fade to black - and what do I do -? I have a library for the family. And ... we use it. Will you become a slave to the light ... the glow? Will your ideas be some one else’s ... hey - look what Facebook said or look-at what the news said or look at this picture or some one else’s ideas or will we have our own without —- the bright blue light in our face ? Will we have a balance of it ? Will we slow it to take over ? The fight for the heart and mind and often attention is real at times. I’ve seen people blank at simple adoption because ... that’s what we have devices to do for us... simple math. Second grade stuff... blows my mind sometimes. Any how - thanks for this discussion and I hope to be a small help maybe or at least join in on some good stuff! Force be with us all - maybe even the monitors lol open pun intended there !

Pastor of Temple of the Jedi Order
pastor@templeofthejediorder.org
Build, not tear down.
Nosce te ipsum / Cerca trova
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4 years 9 months ago #339045 by JamesSand

Do you mind revealing what your job is? Then I could give you my thoughts on how much danger your job might face.

The big kids will start laying people off first which will make it harder for the little kids to compete. Eventually the little kids will start laying people off. The threat to many jobs is real and it's credible because at the end of the day corporations are not people and they do not have empathy. They don't exist to give people jobs. They exist to make money. And if they see you as a liability and if they can do your job better than you then you will serve no purpose to them.


I think you're missing my point.

I don't want to work. Why hasn't technology been used to create a utopia where we spend our time at leisure - swimming, reading, napping, rubbing oil on each other, cultivating bee hives, other things of joy and pleasure.

Doesn't seem much point in curing cancer (or any other ailment you please), if I'm still going to spend 70-odd percent of my wonderful healthy life doing pointless drudgery because we simply can't work out how to live with ourselves otherwise.

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4 years 9 months ago #339046 by ZealotX
I am very interested in the idea of universal basic income which I believe was being used on a popular sci-fi tv series I will not mention here.

The only question I have is who pays for it. Do we tax corporations to some degree for each AI or machine they "employ"? They will definitely have greater profits but if they replace everyone... and I think herein lies our salvation... if they did replace anyone then who would be left to be the customer?

Machines certainly wouldn't have needs and therefore wouldn't buy anything nor would they receive wages to buy anything. And without us buying stuff and being consumers there wouldn't be a market for all their products (except rich people who don't buy everything). So yeah, I think they have to figure out who their customers are going to be if no one has jobs anymore. I don't even know how much they'll need programmers.

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