North Korea

ZealotX wrote: ...I don't think Kim necessarily plans to use that power. I think maybe he just wants to have it as protection. And with his "god-like" status, worshipped by his people, he cannot afford to appear weak and perhaps... he has drunken a little too much of his own koolaid and believes they would be successful against any foe. When battling against someone's beliefs... I think its really hard to frame everything in rational/logical terms. Would Kim even respect the UN?

The "god-like" status belonged more to his father and grand-father. The previous US administration essentially ceased its international support to the country in 2009...the current "Kim" only took office in early 2012 after the death of his father...but DID grow up drinking his dad's koolaid and watching him navigate the international games in the same fashion. He is only doing as his country has been doing since the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War...albeit with FAR less success than his father had, and that pressure has to be building at home. The current US administration just seems less interested in allowing such tactics to continue than previous administrations had been willing to do, and are more vocal about it.

The problem lies in the fact that what we believe they believe is not at all what is really being believed by them, or what they believe we believe they believe. The stark differences between Western and Eastern philosophical schools aside, North Korea has literally grown into its entirely own unique mindset, albeit steeped in Eastern traditions, which no one has had any reasonable position or level of understanding to begin to understand what it is that we do not understand about them.

The conditions on the Korean peninsula since 1953 are basically as they are for far wider reasons, namely: the whole shake up of reassigning sponsorship over areas previously controlled by Imperial Japan following the end of World War II, compounded by the rising influence of victorious allies at differing ends of the ideological spectrum, a new swell of governance formats in neighboring countries, all while major players were themselves recovering from various degrees of wounds and costs and trying to take drastic steps to avoid another series of events like the one they just came out on the victor's side of.

In essence, resolving the conflict on the Korean peninsula was placed in a zero-sum endgame in August 1945 when the United States and the Soviet Union agreed on joint custody of the peninsula following the defeat of Japan. The period from 1950-1953 highlighted this, yet again was not resolved at Panmunjon, but simply placed on the back-burner, where it has sat for the past 64 years.

Settling the issues on the Korean peninsula without serious and catastrophic conflict is nearly as likely as settling the Israeli-Palestinian issues without any heartache.

The problem lies in the fact that what we believe they believe is not at all what is really being believed by them, or what they believe we believe they believe.

:laugh:

All nuclear-bomb capable countries have tested their nuclear bombs like north korea has. Only one has ever used them as a weapon, and strangely enough, that was on pacific islands right next to north korea. Currently that country's nuclear arsenal is under the control of donald trump.


Do we really need to share our opinions or are the hard facts hard enough already?

ren wrote: All nuclear-bomb capable countries have tested their nuclear bombs like north korea has. Only one has ever used them as a weapon, and strangely enough, that was on pacific islands right next to north korea. Currently that country's nuclear arsenal is under the control of donald trump.


Do we really need to share our opinions or are the hard facts hard enough already?

At the same time, however, opinions trend against being useful except in only explaining to ourselves what our view of the issue is, rather than in actually assessing the issue for what it really, truly, is.

In the immediate example, we are witnessing something no one can definitively point to a reasonable end result that does not equate to anything better than an opinionated guess. Which in itself is only how we ourselves may view what that outcome may be.

While statements from the current US administration seem unprecedented and ill-advised, they are an entirely new approach to the situation, one which North Korea has yet been forced to consider. It is a stark break from procedure for the US, and I do not imagine the Kim regime has a solid understanding of how to approach the situation. In the past, their threats and even pot-shot actions, have generally worked out to get them the attention and aide they need. Since the previous US administration stopped canning to those threats, albeit with tongue in cheek, the regime has had to step up the ante to force our hand. Now they have received a river-card they aren't sure how to read, and never even expected to be in a situation where they would have to read it anyway.

So NOW, not only do we not know what to expect next, neither do they. To hinge off my last turn of words, we don't know what they will do, but we know they won't do what we know they'll do, and they know we know they don't know what to do.

North Korea is doing the same thing it has done for the last 30 some years, constantly threaten war, constantly show signs of military might, constantly test it's military etc. Everyone everyone backs away a little but continues to build up defenses to match what north Korea has been improving with their military just in case.

The only 3 things that have changed:
1. Technology has been improving...finally
2. News media Is blowing it more out of proportion now because it has changed
3. We have a president who doesn't bow down to the same crap they have been doing for 30 years

The problem as I see it as there are some strange things going on seemingly by the North Korean regime. So the concern for me might be that Kim Jong-un is actually quite unhinged, and as a pure dictator is without any external controls. Trump might be a hit unhinged too, but he has a lot of external controls over him... vastly more to the extent there is no comparison in that regard. Quite literally, Kim Jong-un could be loose cannon and not just acting like one. And so nuclear weapons are a serious thing to be in the hands of someone who is out of control in that way. Since there are also no measures to assess intent from the regime, as they've been threatening all natures of attack regularly for years, it's a dangerous situation to exert effective decision making into. Plus its deliberate - the NK regime is trying to force the US into making a first move, or over-reaction. Considering the vast scale of impact WMD's have compared to normal munitions, leaders become faced with the difficult decision of pre-emption of some nature to reduce the likely scale of disaster. Such as in World War II it was decided that the atomic blasts would be less destructive then a protracted land campaign through Japan, for both sides. There could be no decisions harder to make I imagine, and not making them is valid only insofar as technology determines the nature of the actual threats.

In my opinion the big let down in all this is the inability for the Chinese Communist Party to control what is a vital piece of strategic real estate for them. China would really not want anyone, who was not under their control, to be occupying land that close to Beijing and with such a controlling position to the Bohai sea. Consider that China is by far the largest source of North Korea's income... they the ability to control them, but elect not to. The best outcome IMO is for China to annex North Korea, and absorb it into the PRC. I don't think the West would have any problem with it..... but image Kim Jong-un would
My concern is China cares less about all this, as it might be easier for them to let it burn to the ground - being downwind its less of an environmental threat, and a closed radiation zone in what was North Korea still meets their strategic need for that piece of the peninsular.

S in the end, I'd say North Korea has no need for nuclear weapons. If the US had wanted to invade them they could have done so successfully anytime over the last 40 years, but even if the US or South Korea wanted to invade them, they have China right next door who is allied in their defense. Whatever happens I just hope the US does not resort to nuclear weapons, even if North Korea does. Best worse casenin response to dismatle NK ~ drop a few EMP's over them, then remove their military with airpower, and try and leave the DMZ as a refugee buffer until China moves in to occupy the territory.

I worked as part of the Combat Force Commander (Alpha Zulu) for the entire Pacific theater for 4 & 1/2 years, with a main focus on the issues brought about by North Korea. This really goes beyond the scope of a mere internet forum posting but I will do my best to provide an unclassified view of how things developed. Bring us back to the original Korean peninsula war where America planned and had the goal of using nuclear weapons upon North Korea (specifically the northern border to nuke NKor/Chinese forces reinforcing), only to stop at the last moment by President Truman who saw the end to the rogue Generals in our US Military. These men were a force unto themselves and at times forced influence into the Presidency. Since then Asia overall sees a lot of our military as cavalier in attitude when it comes to war, and we have done little to change that point of view. Our Generals have over the decades been breaking with policy or demands from our government .... such as the reformation of the Japanese society post war (original plans were to keep it a crushed society) so there have been positives but there was also the Communist bloc vs the American arm, to which North Korea found itself stuck in between even after the Cold War era ended.

North Korea is not rich in food or resources that support a healthy food economy, and once the soviet society fell, so did the support they needed to keep their people alive. When they sought help from the greater nations of the world while still being an echo of the Cold War, they were largely punished by denial of food and other resources which would help keep their people alive.... some estimates exceed 3 million civilians died of hunger in North Korea in those years... while they saw Americans and other countries announce about their breadbaskets and weight issues. This angered them and they learned to use the one thing they did have as leverage to control their society as the Soviets taught them, their military. As plates got leaner, the military tightened its belt and militarized ever more.... especially when it realized the one resource it had actually threatened the world.... and by using that they could get more.... nuclear materials.

Now I am painting North Korea in a light of the victim, they are far from it, having exceeded the reasonable expectations of them time and time again and using threats of war to maintain their society's importance and to get what they want. Most of the people who are serving in the North Korean military today not only know what hunger is, but watched their families wiped out by it... this has an important factor on the mentality of a people. When someone is starving, giving them anything to survive makes you their savior... and so we bring in China.

China supported North Korea in the Korean War to push out American influence and to create a buffer zone. But they have not supported a thriving North Korea as it does not benefit China to have North Korea thrive, but to struggle... always close to being important but never quite there. As it knows North Korea has the mentality of a starved abused child, once it gets power it can and usually is.... ruthless. So it keeps it checked and occasionally steps back. There is so much more to this that even I know and I highly doubt our sitting US President has been able to wrap his mind around all of it yet, there is a tremendous amount of history at work here.

The United States is dealing with a nuclear power whose regime is ... I hesitate to say unstable as I have seen little evidence that it is unstable except in family relations.... but delicate because their sustained policies that kept them surviving the fall of the USSR and the Great Famine of North Korea... are eroding their base as global climate change is poised to hit them again. North Korea has tasted power, has the technology to use it this time, and does not want to starve.... nor does it want to ever be as it sees, a puppet for another world power ever again, it wants to be a world power in its own right. It is playing a delicate Game of Thrones which may end in war..... and North Korea can bring war to the United States and the world in a global conflict that many people online and in America in general do not consider.

You see, North Korea has agents and personnel all around the world.... loyalists all, willing to carry out acts of sabotage that would wreck economies and cripple infrastructure. We (US) could win the war in North Korea and see over five decades of additional terrorism. In addition North Korea will not go silently into the night, it has no less than a dozen mobile sites each with their own underground train system that transport nuclear arsenal. A ground war in Asia was always a fools errand but now with suicide nuclear options on the table, we would see tremendous losses. In my opinion, North Korea can never be taken without casualties ranging in a war of attrition much like Iwo Jima with nukes.

North Korea is a mountainous region that is notoriously hard to navigate, and even if we bombard every site we see, there will always be more sites we do not see. The war would drag on and on and I would not be surprised if North Korea has a nuclear option on the table to hit the US without an ICBM. They never signed the Geneva Conventions and have no problems with using wmd.

China would eventually get involved in a war with North Korea as all nuclear effects hit them and they have an invested interest in keeping North Korea there as a buffer zone.... something they are so big on (Buffer zones) that they go to war with other countries and are even threatening conflict with another Nuclear power.... India. This is not an easy topic and I am sure I am doing nothing but scratching the surface but I do hope it helps provide some insight.

Excellent summary and analysis.
Newsweek posted a story about the legacy of US atrocities committed during the "Forgotten" Korean War. Not only were the NK's and Chinese seen as Commies but they were also viewed as part of the Asian Peril. The United States had just fought a brutal war with Japan and did not hesitate to use nukes to test them and end the war. It is incredible that Nukes were not used on the peninsular.
The other dimension is Russia. There is a short border between the Russia Federation and North Korea. Vladivostok is only a couple of hundred kilometers from the border. Any war on the peninsular, nuclear or conventional, will drag Russia and China in. The nightmare scenario presents itself.
Russia like North Korea has a strong national psyche built on the bones of millions. The Stalinist era of repression and failed agricultural economy led to the starvation of millions and the exile and murder of up to a million. The second war reminded Russia of their vulnerability to the west. The cold war cemented that mistrust. They have buffered themselves since. They dropped their guard a little pre-1999 but then the bombing of Serbia by NATO reminded them the old ways were still alive. The more things change the more they stay the same. We are now back in a cold war with Russia orchestrated by Hawks on both sides but predominately the Neo Cons in the US.
Russia voted with the SC on more sanction but is viewing a conflict in the region and so close to its border with alarm. As a result Vladivostok and the border are militarized in preparation for war. Trump may be able to negotiate a peaceful settlement in the background, my instincts tell me shots will be fired. When that happens we all better hold our breaths.
For those that remember the last cold war and the stark fear of Nuclear War, its a lose-lose option and everyone but the most insane know it. The second hand ticks closer to zero hour .