climate change

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8 years 7 months ago #199951 by Gisteron
Replied by Gisteron on topic climate change

Spartanmeup wrote: So instead of a giant meteor, it's going to be a giant icecap?

Sorry, but I really don't put too much weight into doomsayers [sic] words, not anymore.

Good on you. nobody should. In fact, nobody should trust anyone's words on their own, especially not on the more pressing and relevant issues. What we should however trust is what nature already provides by the mountains: Evidence.

You see, there are, and have been for about a millennium now, doomsday preachers reading palms and skies or holy books to predict the end of days on just about every day. Any moment now, they say, it's just around the corner.

And then there are reserach scientists taking and plotting measurements, not with household thermometers on cold december nights but with orbital scanners circling the entire globe.

Of course, ignorant of either their studies and results and even more of the theory and mathematical methods of the geosciences and thus unlikely to comprehend much of what the research papers conclude, when we come to hear a concrete date or year one ought to raise an eyebrow. After all, with the sheer amount of variables there is hardly a way to take all into account. Not to mention that most of the planet is covered in salt water already and most of what isn't submerged is either too hot or too cold for human life in particular were it not for the advances of technology in no small part thanks to the very same science that you...

Ah, but I shan't be presumptuous. Perhaps what you criticized was exactly the specificity to the point where a concrete year is predicted. Be aware however that you did make it sound like holy text apocalypse panics and climate science researchers were of the same category in your view. Surely that cannot be what you meant, is it?

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8 years 7 months ago #200006 by
Replied by on topic climate change

Gisteron wrote:

Spartanmeup wrote: So instead of a giant meteor, it's going to be a giant icecap?

Sorry, but I really don't put too much weight into doomsayers [sic] words, not anymore.

Good on you. nobody should. In fact, nobody should trust anyone's words on their own, especially not on the more pressing and relevant issues. What we should however trust is what nature already provides by the mountains: Evidence.

You see, there are, and have been for about a millennium now, doomsday preachers reading palms and skies or holy books to predict the end of days on just about every day. Any moment now, they say, it's just around the corner.

And then there are reserach scientists taking and plotting measurements, not with household thermometers on cold december nights but with orbital scanners circling the entire globe.

Of course, ignorant of either their studies and results and even more of the theory and mathematical methods of the geosciences and thus unlikely to comprehend much of what the research papers conclude, when we come to hear a concrete date or year one ought to raise an eyebrow. After all, with the sheer amount of variables there is hardly a way to take all into account. Not to mention that most of the planet is covered in salt water already and most of what isn't submerged is either too hot or too cold for human life in particular were it not for the advances of technology in no small part thanks to the very same science that you...

Ah, but I shan't be presumptuous. Perhaps what you criticized was exactly the specificity to the point where a concrete year is predicted. Be aware however that you did make it sound like holy text apocalypse panics and climate science researchers were of the same category in your view. Surely that cannot be what you meant, is it?


Perhaps you missed my point, I agree.

My point wasn't that the science behind climate change is invalid, my point is the statements of "OMGZORZ THE EURTH IS GUNNA MALT AND WE IS ALL GUNNA DIE!!!!!" in relation to climate change make me invalidate all the statements of those who use it as a front for their instability.

We have people living in the desert, and people living in the frozen icelands of our world, but you are going to tell me we can't adapt to whatever the hypothetical climate may change to?

We put a man on the moon, but you mean to say we can't find alternative ways of feeding ourselves if certain species of plants an animals die out?

Climate change has validity to it, doomsayers will never have any.

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8 years 7 months ago - 8 years 7 months ago #200034 by
Replied by on topic climate change
we are on the path to temperatures to which we will not be able to adapt to. Right now according to the science we are right on track for a 4C world. Even the best case scenario for that world is horrific. It might be possible a very few of us will live in a 4C world. There are absolutely no guarantees though. It would mean unimaginable suffering and death. And science is also showing we could very well be on the path to a 4C+ world in which it is highly likely that even we are not capable of adapting. Every day we put off acting we make that world way more likely. At some point we will lock in that world if we do not change. We don't know exactly when the tipping point is, but some scientists models suggest as early as 2036. That is not a lot of time. At the same time our governments are acting like we somehow have plenty of time to act in a leisurely manor. Do you want that 4C world for your children or for you ? It could absolutely happen in your lifetime if you are under 30. Are you absolutely sure you will be one of the very lucky few that survive. If anyone does survive. I am not so certain. Though I have exactly one thing going for me I live in the willamette valley in Oregon. Which is predicted not to be in a megadrought till at least 2060. If we do not act in the very soon future we will be locking in that world. I understand that your mind rebels against that notion. My mind does too. I do not want this to be true, but frankly the evidence is overwhelming. If we continue to live in denial we will cause our own destruction. We have a short period of time to act to prevent that world from coming into being, but to do that we have to act on a global scale. In the spirit of making that happen I have joined The Climate Mobilization. And I have taken the pledge we need a WW2 level of response to avoid this. This is a link to the pledge climate mobilization . I believe I have a responsibility to do everything that I can to prevent that 4C world from happening and in order to do that I must ACT now. There is not time to waste.
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8 years 7 months ago #200046 by Gisteron
Replied by Gisteron on topic climate change

Spartanmeup wrote: We have people living in the desert, and people living in the frozen icelands of our world, but you are going to tell me we can't adapt to whatever the hypothetical climate may change to?

We put a man on the moon, but you mean to say we can't find alternative ways of feeding ourselves if certain species of plants an animals die out?

Precisely.
You see, the world doesn't revolve around people. Nor are we strictly dependant on any one or reasonably small set of eucaryote species as it stands.
It is not so much that we or any one given fellow earthling would vanish from the face of the planet if the temperature rose as much as two degrees. It already did rise and the planet is hardly any worse off for it.
What is crucial to all this is that earth is a highly complex system with a myriad of variables we know and still more out there that we don't. Chaos theory tells us that even slight deviations of some stable parameters can eventually lead to catastrophic results and often times that happens sooner than we would be prepared for and as things stand now, we aren't doing much to prepare ourselves and are investing more into prevention.
Keep in mind also, that temperature is not the only parameter that is changing. If anything it is changing because of other parameters like CH4 and CO2 concentrations which affect more than just the temperature but also the stability of other atmospheric compounds necessary to sustain large chunks of the microcosm closer to the surface and of course the infamous O3 layer in the upper atmosphere.

Anyway, the point is, with the countless variables and their intricate interdependancy it is nigh impossible to predict the outcome of any biased changes in either direction. Minor changes obviously cancel out quickly, larger ones might not and since we cannot predict the chain of events, we have no control over it and are unprepared for the outcomes. I'd have no problem if we went out to conduct terraforming experiments with Mars or Venus, shaking them up to see what comes out. If anything, I'd be in favour of it for all the knowledge that could gain us. However, as long as we have no planet to escape to and as long as the one we occupy is able to sustain us, I think we should avoid toying around with that one.

What I would agree with you on is that there is no point pushing panic over it. Raise awareness, invest into better courses of action, sure. This is a worrisome issue so there is little shame in being worried about it. Crying about the end of days over it though is unhelpful and I doubt anybody is trying to sound like that here.

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8 years 7 months ago #200125 by Whyte Horse
Replied by Whyte Horse on topic climate change

Adder wrote:
Plants would love the higher CO2 and increases in temperature might drive greater precipitation too :blink:

Most crops die when the temperature is too high... no matter how much CO2 you give them

Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts.

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8 years 7 months ago #200894 by
Replied by on topic climate change
Just to put my 2 cents here.
Climate changes happened all the time in the past, and humanity still found it's way and is still here. There were numerous Ice Ages, and still people learned how to cope with them. And with our technology it should even be easier to prepare for it. SO as others said here, awareness is good, but we don't have to panic. Just try to be prepared for it. Still the climate change will not be that fast so we don't have to worry much. I mainly fear that we will destroy ourselves long before nature does. With all the hatred going around the world, poverty, crisis almost everywhere, it's just a matter of time till some crazy fanatic pushes the red button.
I still hope that this won't happen. That we as humans still are rational at least so much to not destroy ourselves but it looks like the world is trying to convince me otherwise.

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8 years 7 months ago #200911 by
Replied by on topic climate change
This topic is what has been my motivation for the last year, ever since the UN released their climate report that a lot of the numbers are derived from. Our governments act like there is ample time because they don't want to see change, their primary source of income is by controlling the resources used. The US destabilized the Middle East to try and control what is left of the oil. Had Ford used a hemp powered engine like he originally designed this would be a different ballgame.

The key right now is to raise awareness, our only hope is a shift in consciousness. Many hold the belief that it doesn't matter what happens to Earth, God will rebuild it. The ego is what we are fighting here, just like in all walks of life. The truth scares people, it hurts, what do we do to make it bearable? Living as a Jedi is the only way i can think to do so, much of the change we need to facilitate comes from within. Everyone has intelligence to be unlocked, a lot are just too busy looking at their phones and worried about their favorite sports team. The more that wake up the more productive we can become at fixing this.

What do you want to do to help facilitate this change, Keladry? I've been trying to find my way, gotta figure out what to focus on with the technicalities. Ican grasp the concepts all day. I'm leaning towards electrical engineering, help kick the oil addiction.

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8 years 7 months ago #200912 by Gisteron
Replied by Gisteron on topic climate change

gombicek wrote: ... the climate change will not be that fast so we don't have to worry much.

No, not that fast. Just faster than it has ever been in recorded history, but not "that" fast...
*facepalm*

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8 years 7 months ago #200914 by Adder
Replied by Adder on topic climate change
We'll have to start comparing notes soon :lol:

I'll start with this one, goes back 3000 years;
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N50/C3.php
or
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/keigwin1996/
or full article;
https://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/keigwin_sargasso.pdf

It's limited to one location, but shows something like this;

Attachment h3de92bd.png not found



PS; I'm all for better environmental technology and clean energy BTW.

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8 years 7 months ago - 8 years 7 months ago #200983 by Loudzoo
Replied by Loudzoo on topic climate change

Gisteron wrote:

gombicek wrote: ... the climate change will not be that fast so we don't have to worry much.

No, not that fast. Just faster than it has ever been in recorded history, but not "that" fast...
*facepalm*


Recorded history for global mean lower tropospheric temperatures go back to 1979 - the dawn of the satellite era. Since then you could say that average temperatures rose 0.1C per decade. Others have said it might be more meaningful to say there was a small trend from 1979 - 1997, then a climate shift in 1998 (caused by the 1998 'Super El Nino') and no trend since.


Attachment h1e81576.jpg not found


http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

The global thermometer network records go back to 1850 (although they are very far from global) and look like this:

Attachment h18dea31.png not found


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/diagnostics.html

As you will see the rate of warming from 1915 - 1940 is very similar to the period of recent warming (1975 - 2000). Similar duration and similar rate. Hardly anything remarkable about the last few decades.

Going further back - there is no truly reliable data for global mean atmospheric temperatures. We rely on proxies and reconstructions. Here is a popular paper on Greenland from the journal Science:
http://epic.awi.de/17919/1/Ste2007b.pdf

The conclusion: "The high-resolution records from the NGRIP
ice core reveal that polar atmospheric circulation
can shift in 1 to 3 years, resulting in decadal- to
centennial-scale changes from cold stadials to
warm interstadials/interglacials associated with
large Greenland temperature changes of 10 K
(6, 20). Neither the magnitude of such shifts nor
their abruptness is currently captured by state-of-the-art
climate models"

Climate today isn't changing that fast - proxies suggest that it has changed much more rapidly in the past from purely natural variability. CAGW may or may not be true but to suggest current climate change is more rapid than at anytime in recorded history isn't supported by the evidence. Gisteron - this certainly isn't meant to be a personal attack - far from it. As a person of significant scientific knowledge (from what I've enjoyed reading of yours) its merely a presentation of what I understand to be the best evidence, currently available.

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