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Men Hardwired to be Better than Women at Chess
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Akkarin wrote: Regarding Magnus Carlson's game, one game of chess doesn't prove anything, because at some point in the future the best player in the game will probably be a woman. You need to have a discussion about trends and averages, because there will always be a few data points which lie outside of the norm.
I just want to make myself clear that the game was an example of what I was talking about, but my post was based on statistics. I talked about elo rating, which is the literal statistical chance that you have to win versus another player. Magnus' rates almost 200 elo points higher than some of the top female chess players. Statistically, this means he has about a 75% win chance against even the top players.
Radar6590 wrote: For whatever reason, men seem to be able to do this more consistently over hundreds of games, thus their higher statistical wins and elo. Women can do it too, usually reaching high 2600's, but the current world champ Magnus Carlsen is almost at 2900, with the skill level increasing exponentially the higher you go.
I posted the Magnus game because it seemed relevant to the topic as supplementary material, and to show you an example of one game. I don't think that Magnus' win percentage is actually that high overall, something like 60-65%, but that is of course versus other world caliber players. Versus a lower caliber players like a 2650 he has a much higher change to win. This would be based off of their overall tournament games of course, and there is something to be said for also checking personal records.
I would also like to point out that I don't think it's reflective of chess players as a whole, but more of an indicator in top level play. (I myself peaked at about 1700 before I stopped playing tournaments when I went to college - many, many women can beat me!)
So to back my statement up, here's a chart showing elo differences and the statistical likely hood that you'll win:
This table shows the correlation between the difference in Elo points and the probability of winning a game (in bold). So for example if a player has won 60% of her games against an opponent, she would be approximately 72 Elo points stronger. Conversely, a player that is 150 points weaker than his opponent, has only a 30% chance of winning a game.
.99 +677______ .66 +117______ .33 -125
.98 +589______ .65 +110______ .32 -133
.97 +538______ .64 +102______ .31 -141
.96 +501______ .63 +95______ .30 -149
.95 +470______ .62 +87______ .29 -158
.94 +444______ .61 +80______ .28 -166
.93 +422______ .60 +72______ .27 -175
.92 +401______ .59 +65______ .26 -184
.91 +383______ .58 +57______ .25 -193
.90 +366______ .57 +50______ .24 -202
.89 +351______ .56 +43______ .23 -211
.88 +335______ .55 +36______ .22 -220
.87 +322______ .54 +29______ .21 -230
.86 +309______ .53 +21______ .20 -240
.85 +296______ .52 +14______ .19 -251
.84 +284______ .51 +7______ .18 -262
.83 +273______ .50 0______ .17 -273
.82 +262______ .49 -7______ .16 -284
.81 +251______ .48 -14______ .15 -296
.80 +240______ .47 -21______ .14 -309
.79 +230______ .46 -29______ .13 -322
.78 +220______ .45 -36______ .12 -335
.77 +211______ .44 -43______ .11 -351
.76 +202______ .43 -50______ .10 -366
.75 +193______ .42 -57______ .09 -383
.74 +184______ .41 -65______ .08 -401
.73 +175______ .40 -72______ .07 -422
.72 +166______ .39 -80______ .06 -444
.71 +158______ .38 -87______ .05 -470
.70 +149______ .37 -95______ .04 -501
.69 +141______ .36 -102______ .03 -538
.68 +133______ .35 -110______ .02 -589
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