Ebola

Connor L. wrote: They would not bring somebody to the US who posed a threat to the whole country. Have a little more faith that the people in charge do not want an outbreak. That would not serve them well at all.

If you think from a "selfish" point of view, which is the view of most humans, I can't see them doing anything to endanger anybody's lives, lest they end up with no job.

They're taking the patients to a very secure space. I am not worried at all.

Oh, 'they' wouldn't? I'm not so sure. I can think of a lot of people who could stand to gain in many ways, not just financially, from weaponizing and controlling Ebola. I can also envision it leading to the next zombie apocalypse. Oh well.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/index.html

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

Hm. So I guess saliva counts as a secretion.

It saddens me to read that one of the factors of this outbreak is poor hygiene that stems from ignorance again.
The best way to treat these diseases seems to be is to educate the inhabitants of those infected countries about proper prevention. There are a lot of people there who believe in the craziest things.

Desolous wrote: I can think of a lot of people who could stand to gain in many ways, not just financially, from weaponizing and controlling Ebola.

Yeah... but that's not just letting it out into the open. (Yet).

Just to hopefully clarify that question about transmission. Yes, it does include saliva.

CDC wrote: Although the disease is rare, it can spread from person to person, especially among health care staff and other people who have close contact* with an infected person. Ebola is spread through direct contact with blood or body fluids (such as saliva or urine) of an infected person or animal or through contact with objects that have been contaminated with the blood or other body fluids of an infected person.

The likelihood of contracting Ebola is extremely low unless a person has direct contact with the body fluids of a person or animal that is infected and showing symptoms. A fever in a person who has traveled to or lived in an area where Ebola is present is likely to be caused by a more common infectious disease, but the person would need to be evaluated by a health care provider to be sure.

Note they define "close contact" as having cared for or lived with a person with Ebola or having a high likelihood of direct contact with blood or body fluids of an Ebola patient. Close contact does not include walking by a person or briefly sitting across a room from a person.

BUT

"In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated (1, 6, 13). The importance of this route of transmission is not clear."

1. Plague. (2004). In R. G. Darling, & J. B. Woods (Eds.), USAMRIID's Medical Management of Biological Casualties Handbook (5th ed., pp. 40-44). Fort Detrick M.D.: USAMRIID.
6. Mwanatambwe, M., Yamada, N., Arai, S., Shimizu-Suganuma, M., Shichinohe, K., & Asano, G. (2001). Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF): mechanism of transmission and pathogenicity. Journal of Nippon Medical School = Nihon Ika Daigaku Zasshi, 68(5), 370-375.
13. Feigin, R. D. (Ed.). (2004). Textbook of Pediatric Infectious Diseases (5th ed.). Philadelphia, USA: Elsevier, Inc.

So yea, it explains why they wear the whole regalia of protective gear with it.

Ignoring the risk is easy.... until it's not. I'm not a panic merchant, but I like to consider the higher risk possibilities.

Here is an interesting commentary from the person who discovered Ebola.

Perfect Storm?
The man who discovered Ebola in the 1970s says the situation in West Africa is a perfect storm for the disease.

Peter Piot co-discovered Ebola in 1976 and is considered one of the leading authorities on the haemorrhagic virus. He has told a French magazine the epidemic was exploding in countries where health services were not functioning.

He also said nothing could be done until the public started to trust the health authorities.

Official messages seem to indicate it is more controllable in nations with effective health care systems, but nearly 10% of death's are healthcare workers, which might indicate it is quite difficult to work with. I'm sure the rate for healthcare workers would be lower in the West, but they did already seem to be taking extraordinary procedures there.

At least 1,427 people have died and 2,615 have been infected since the disease was detected deep in the forests of southeastern Guinea in March. A separate outbreak was confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo at the weekend.

The WHO said it had withdrawn staff from the laboratory testing for Ebola at Kailahun - one of only two in Sierra Leone - after a Senegalese epidemiologist was infected.

The WHO has deployed nearly 400 of its own staff and partner organisations to fight the epidemic of the highly contagious hemorrhagic fever, which has struck Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria. One of the world's deadliest diseases, Ebola is transmitted by contact with body fluids and the current outbreak has killed at least 120 health care workers.

Remembering the incubation period can be up to 21 days from initial exposure to becoming symptomatic and contagious..... given the population's reaction on the ground (near panic in some parts) the next 5 week's might be an important period to assess its spread in West and Central Africa... maybe at that time I'll start considering if we all need full body contagion suits in the cupboard!!!!

Previously these outbreaks need to be contained to stop them, but sometimes a virus can mutate itself in such a way that it dies off naturally - unfortunately for that to happen it usually has to infect lots of people along the way. Hopefully the response has been sufficient to contain its spread. Otherwise we'd need a vaccine, antigen etc

Apparently there is an experimental treatment, and so far it seems to be working on the 2americans that have been treated with it...time will tell for certain though

RyuJin wrote: Apparently there is an experimental treatment, and so far it seems to be working on the 2americans that have been treated with it...time will tell for certain though

ZMapp, its not 100%, a Doctor who was infected had it but died anyway. Seems to make the odd's more favorable though. Apparently it takes months to produce!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZMapp

It's a boring read, but these things are needed I guess for agencies to ramp up allocation of staff and resources in some organized manner;

"WHO issued this roadmap for scaled-up response to the Ebola outbreak. The goal is to stop Ebola transmission in affected countries within 6-9 months and prevent international spread.

The roadmap will assist governments and partners in the revision and resourcing of country-specific operational plans for Ebola response, and the coordination of international support for their full implementation. The objectives are:

1.to achieve full geographic coverage with complementary Ebola response activities in countries with widespread and intense transmission.
2. to ensure emergency and immediate application of comprehensive Ebola response interventions in countries with an initial case(s) or with localized transmission.
3. to strengthen preparedness of all countries to rapidly detect and respond to an Ebola exposure, especially those sharing land borders with an intense transmission area and those with international transportation hubs."

You can download the 1.4mb PDF here

Bad news is that it might peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter (since it seems to be able to be spread by sneezing in someones face if they have a flu or something), which is good news if it can be contained to Africa because it will be the Summer for Central and Southern Africa during this period.

The deadly Ebola outbreak in West Africa could infect more than 20,000 people before it is brought under control, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.

The dire prediction came as more than 3,000 people had been registered as being infected with the virus. However the WHO said the true figure could be much higher. More than 1,500 people have already died from the virus, with most of the deaths occurring in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

In a new anti-Ebola plan, the UN health agency said it aimed to reverse the trend within three months, with the final aim of stopping "all residual transmission within six to nine months". It said the number of infections "could exceed 20,000 over the course of this emergency".

"This roadmap assumes that in many areas of intense transmission the actual number of cases may be two to fourfold higher than that currently reported," it said. The plan, which has a price tag of $490 million during the six-month campaign, called for a massive ramping up of efforts to contain and defeat the epidemic.

PS: I dont intend to update this thread all the time, just thought this might be of interest for organisational deployment more generally.

Edit: here's a chart!!

I might be over there in 6 months or so. It's definitely a concern. I won't be in any areas directly affected right now, but in 6 months quite a bit could happen.